苹果回吐一周涨幅，红枣仍存减产博弈

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for apples: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for red dates: Neutral - bullish [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple market: The overall apple spot market remains sluggish, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, as well as the price performance of early - maturing apples in the western region after centralized listing [2][3] - Red date market: The second - crop flower setting of new - season red dates is better than expected, and the extent of the yield reduction needs to be re - evaluated. The overall inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years, and the current is the traditional off - season. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the follow - up, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,908 yuan/ton, a change of - 144 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.79% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Apple - Market Analysis - Inventory: The remaining inventory in the warehouse is small, and some production areas are basically cleared. The off - season for sales area shipments continues [2] - New - season early - maturing apples: Paper - bag Qinyang is gradually on the market, with limited supply of red fruits and firm prices [2] - Sales area: The shipment of apples in the wholesale market in the sales area is still slow, and seasonal fruits continue to divert apple sales [2] Apple - Strategy - Given that the remaining inventory in the production area is at a low level and the expected yield in the new production season changes little compared with last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3] Red Date - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10,790 yuan/ton, a change of + 95 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.89% [4] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Red Date - Market Analysis - New - season red dates: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The first - crop flower setting in some jujube orchards is average, but the second - and third - crop flower setting is good. The estimated new - season yield is 56 - 620,000 tons, a decrease of 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024 [7] - Sales area: The total inventory is at a high level in recent years, and it is the traditional off - season. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has increased recently, and the spot market transactions are good [7] Red Date - Strategy - Recently, funds are highly sensitive to the growth of new - season red dates, and the news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the follow - up [8]