国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities on July 30, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities [2]. - The trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, industry news, and inventory changes [6][11][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend intensity of - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44 yuan, down 0.43%. The macro - economic situation and international trade policies have an impact on its price [2][6][9]. - Silver: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195 yuan, down 0.18%. The trading volume and inventory changes affect its price [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks driving forces and the price will oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,840 yuan, down 0.20%. Macro - economic data and industry news such as potential tariffs and mining projects influence its price [2][11][13]. - Zinc: Will oscillate in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,655 yuan, up 0.04%. Inventory changes and import - export factors affect its price [2][14][15]. - Lead: Overseas inventory increase pressures the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,900 yuan, down 0.09%. Inventory and macro - economic news are the influencing factors [2][18][19]. - Tin: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 266,660 yuan, down 0.46%. Inventory and spot - futures price differences affect its price [2][22][26]. - Aluminum: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,605 yuan, down 10 yuan. The price is affected by factors such as inventory, trading volume, and enterprise profitability [2][27][29]. - Nickel: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,800 yuan, up 180 yuan. Industry news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][30][35]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, up 80 yuan. Market sentiment and industry news are the influencing factors [2][31][35]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Will oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,840 yuan, down 2,280 yuan. Market supply - demand and macro - economic factors affect its price [2][36][38]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan, up 435 yuan. Supply - demand and cost factors affect its price [2][39][42]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,805 yuan, up 1,400 yuan. Industry news and market sentiment affect its price [2][40][42]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of I2509 was 798 yuan, up 12 yuan. Macro - economic news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by the sector's market resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,347 yuan, up 65 yuan; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,503 yuan, up 69 yuan. Industry data and macro - policies affect their prices [2][45][47]. - Silicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon: Affected by the sector's sentiment resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicon manganese is 0. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 6110 yuan, up 270 yuan; the closing price of silicon manganese 2509 was 6212 yuan, up 184 yuan. Market supply - demand and industry news affect their prices [2][48][51]. - Coke and Coking Coal: After the sentiment is realized, they will oscillate widely, with a trend intensity of 0 for both. The closing price of JM2509 was 1120.5 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of J2509 was 1633 yuan, up 24.5 yuan. Supply - demand relationships and price changes in the spot market affect their prices [2][52][55]. - Steam Coal: As daily consumption recovers, it will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend intensity of 0. Yesterday, there was no transaction for ZC2508. The price is affected by factors such as consumption and inventory [2][57][60]. Agricultural Products and Others - Palm Oil: Supported by positive factors such as crude oil and macro - sentiment in the short term. The price is affected by the price of crude oil and macro - economic sentiment [2][60]. - Soybean Oil: Will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade. The price is affected by international trade relations and market supply - demand [2][60]. - Soybean Meal: Likely to oscillate, affected by the prices of US soybeans and rapeseed meal. The price is affected by the international soybean market and domestic supply - demand [2][62]. - Corn: Will oscillate. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and weather [2][64]. - Sugar: Will oscillate in a narrow range. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption [2][65]. - Cotton: After the sentiment cools down, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will correct. The price is affected by market sentiment and supply - demand [2][66]. - Eggs: The spot price has weakened. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption seasons [2][67]. - Live Pigs: With a weak reality and strong expectations, a trend reverse spread is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as production cycles and market expectations [2][68]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas. The price is affected by weather conditions and supply - demand [2][69]. - Log: Will oscillate repeatedly. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and market sentiment [2][61].