周期对比视角看钢铁行业“反内卷”路径

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current steel downturn cycle has similarities and differences with the previous one. The current cycle is more driven by demand decline, with a larger demand drop but a less severe overcapacity issue. The price center is still higher due to increased demand and emerging market demand [2][27][46] - The main policy focus of the previous supply - side reform included capacity reduction, supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control. However, there were some implementation issues [49][51][56] - Potential supply - side policies for the current "anti - involution" in the steel industry may include promoting ultra - low emission transformation and incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market. These are long - term tasks, and short - term over - trading is not recommended. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [4][78][79] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of the Current and Previous Steel Downturn Cycles - Price decline and structure: The decline time of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. The average price decline of finished products is slightly higher, while the decline of iron ore and coking coal is relatively smaller. The price center is higher than the previous low. The current cycle compresses steel mill profits earlier, and the profit recovers in 2024 - 25 [15][19] - Demand and overcapacity: The current cycle is triggered by the decline in real estate demand. The domestic demand for crude steel has been in negative growth since 2021. Although the demand decline is larger, the total demand is on a higher level, and the overcapacity is less severe than the previous cycle [20][27] - Demand structure: In the current cycle, the proportion of manufacturing and export demand has increased, playing a role in hedging demand decline. The external demand for manufacturing is strong, supported by overseas demand and emerging market growth. The overseas steel demand also shows a structural increase in emerging markets [28][31][33] 2. Review of the Previous Supply - Side Structural Reform Policies and Market Changes - Policy background and path: The previous supply - side reform aimed to solve problems such as overcapacity, high leverage, and real estate inventory. The main policies included capacity reduction (1 - 1.5 billion tons of steel and 5 billion tons of coal), supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control [47][49][51] - Market performance: The steel price performance during the previous reform can be divided into four stages: policy - expectation - driven rise and fall (2015.12 - 2016.4), supply - reduction - driven rise (2016.5 - 2016.12), capacity - reduction - driven profit expansion (2017), and supply - elasticity - increase and narrowing profit (2018 - 2019) [57][61][71] 3. Potential Policy Directions for the Current "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry - The current market environment is similar to the previous one, with profit compression and a certain degree of market - based clearance. The priority of promoting supply - side reform this year is not high, but "anti - involution" may be related to anti - deflation [72] - Potential capacity - reduction directions include eliminating blast furnaces below 1000 cubic meters and promoting ultra - low emission transformation in 2026. Supply - control may be achieved by incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market, which is a long - term task. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [73][78][79]