GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-30 05:27Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, while supply-side adjustments are beginning to show, indicating that the steel industry is slowly emerging from its low point [3]. - The report anticipates that if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to a quicker recovery in the industry [3]. - The profitability of steel companies has improved, with the average gross profit per ton of rebar rising to 330.1 CNY/ton, an increase of 131.5 CNY/ton [36]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons, a decrease of 1.98 million tons week-on-week [24]. - The total inventory of steel was 13.365 million tons, down 1.16 million tons week-on-week, maintaining the lowest level for the same period in recent years [5]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week [32]. Raw Materials - The spot price of iron ore increased by 4 CNY/ton to 779 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.52% [48]. - The total inventory of iron ore at ports rose to 137.9038 million tons, a slight increase of 0.04% [49]. - The average available days of imported iron ore for 64 domestic steel companies increased to 21 days, up by 1 day from the previous week [49]. Profitability and Production - The average gross profit for hot-rolled coils rose to 244.1 CNY/ton, an increase of 113.5 CNY/ton [36]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 63.64%, up 3.47% from the previous week [32]. - The total steel production last week was 8.6697 million tons, a decrease of 1.22 million tons week-on-week [33]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].