Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, against the backdrop of improved macro - expectations and robust demand, iron ore prices showed a strong upward trend. The supply was relatively stable, with an increase in shipments mainly from Australia and a decrease in arrivals. The demand was firm, although the pig iron output decreased slightly this period. Considering the high profit per ton of steel, it may remain at a high level in the short term. There is a risk of a decline in pig iron output in the northern region in mid - to late August. In terms of valuation, after the narrowing of the basis of the main contract, the unilateral driving force has weakened, so it is not advisable to chase the rising price and participation should be cautious [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusion Price - In July, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 60 - 85 yuan. For example, the price of Karara fines increased by 72 yuan, PB fines by 67 yuan, etc. As of July 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $102.6, up $2.4 week - on - week, equivalent to about 856 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.17. The optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at par with the spot. The sub - optimal deliverable was brbf fines [5]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,395.68 tons, an increase of 14 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,215 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,295 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,200.9 tons, an increase of 91.8 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 tons, an increase of 198.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 tons, an increase of 222.3 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,489.4 tons, an increase of 104.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons [6]. - Arrivals: From July 21 - 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [6]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly this period, with an average daily output of 242.23 tons/day, a decrease of 0.21 tons/day compared to last week. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output may decline slightly in the next period. As of July 25, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3,071 yuan, with a profit of about 328.82 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 329 yuan. In the electric furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3,359 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3,228 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 59 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity profit was 72 yuan [7]. Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 25, the optimal deliverable was Newman fines, with a converted warehouse receipt price of 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was BRBF with a price of 810 yuan/ton [13]. Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 25, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 29 (- 3) [16]. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data analysis provided. High - and Low - grade Price Difference No specific data analysis provided. Premium Index - As of July 24, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1765 (+ 0.0055), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 15 (+ 0.85) [26]. Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - Various data on the inventory and premium (discount) of different brands of iron ore such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc. are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [28]. Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of imported sintered fine ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,293, a decrease of 62.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.03%. The inventory of domestic sintered fine ore was 8, a decrease of 0.7 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.00% [31]. Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory, Consumption, and Inventory - to - Sales Ratio - As of July 25, the inventory of imported ore of steel mills was 8,885.2, an increase of 63.06 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The daily consumption of imported ore was 301.1, a decrease of 0.15 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.05%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore was 29.5, an increase of 0.22 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [33]. Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - Various data on port inventory (including total inventory, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, etc.) and the number of berthing vessels at 45 ports are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [36]. Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 25, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,683, an increase of 87 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.47%. The inventory of imported port pellet ore was 390, a decrease of 29 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.93%. The inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,082, an increase of 1 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,636, a decrease of 54 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.50% [39]. Port Ore Removal - The port ore removal data from 2020 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the ore removal volume of each month in different years [42]. Iron Ore in Transit at Sea - The data on iron ore in transit at sea from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [45]. Iron Ore Import Quantity - The import volume data of iron ore from different countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [48][49][50]. Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China was 1,489, an increase of 104 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.51%. The total Australian shipments were 1,794, an increase of 222.3 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 14.15%. The proportion of shipments to China was 83.04%, a decrease of 5.1% compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.82% [58]. Global Iron Ore Shipment No specific data analysis provided. Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Brazilian iron ore shipped globally was 884, a decrease of 24 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 2.59% [65]. Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of July 25, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 490, an increase of 33 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.15%. The shipment volume of BHP was 496, an increase of 36 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.89%. The shipment volume of Vale was 639, a decrease of 47 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.83%. The shipment volume of FMG was 364, an increase of 85 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43%. The total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,989, an increase of 107 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.69% [66]. Iron Ore Arrivals - As of July 25, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2,241, a decrease of 131 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.5%. The arrivals at northern ports were 1,157, a decrease of 232 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 16.7% [73]. Freight Rates - The freight rate data of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao (BCI - C3) and from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [75]. Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - The estimated domestic iron ore production data from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the production volume of each month in different years [77]. Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of July 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.8, a decrease of 0.08 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The average daily pig iron output was 242.2, a decrease of 0.21 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore was 59.1, an increase of 0.88 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fine ore was 8.4, an increase of 0.04 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [79]. Pig Iron Production - The daily pig iron production data from 2016 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts and tables, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. The year - on - year growth rate of 2024 compared to 2023 and 2025 compared to 2024 are also provided [86]. Global Pig Iron Production - The pig iron production data of different regions (EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.) and the global total from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [89]. Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - As of July 25, the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, including the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [94].
黑色金属月报：铁矿：限产预期提升，驱动减弱-20250730
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-30 06:59