周观点：东兴轻纺：生育补贴落实，关注关税政策变化-20250730

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][55] Core Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to benefit the entire fertility industry chain, with a basic standard of CNY 3,600 per child per year starting from January 1, 2025, which will enhance disposable income for childcare and boost demand for baby products and children's clothing [3][10] - The textile manufacturing sector shows decent performance, with companies like Bailong Oriental expecting a net profit of CNY 350-410 million for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.2%-76.0% due to strong domestic and overseas orders [3][10] - The home furnishing sector faces pressure from declining real estate sales, with June data showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% in sales area and 13.6% in sales value, although home furnishing retail sales increased by 28.7% [4][11] - The furniture and accessories export market saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% in June, but there are concerns about the purchasing intentions of U.S. retailers due to high inventory levels [4][12] - The secondary market prices for Bubble Mart's IPs remain stable, indicating strong demand exceeding supply, which is beneficial for maintaining the vitality of the IPs [4][12] Summary by Sections Textile and Apparel - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is expected to enhance demand for baby products and children's clothing, benefiting companies like Semir Apparel and Weigao Medical [3][10] - Bailong Oriental's profit forecast indicates a strong market with increased capacity utilization and profit growth [3][10] - There are uncertainties regarding tariffs and order demand in the second half of the year [3][10] Light Industry Manufacturing - The home furnishing sector is under pressure from real estate sales, but government subsidies are expected to stimulate demand [4][11] - The furniture export market is recovering, but U.S. purchasing intentions may decline due to high inventory levels [4][12] - Companies with strong dividend yields and brand advantages, such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, are recommended for investment [4][11] Market Performance - The textile and apparel industry rose by 1.45%, while light industry manufacturing increased by 1.84% in the recent week [5][13] - The performance of various sub-sectors within textiles and light industry shows mixed results, with some companies experiencing significant gains [5][13][25]