Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 08:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position in a volatile manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a good long - term consumption expectation. It is also advised to trade with a light - position in a volatile way, paying attention to the rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 65 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 11,344 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,606 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 456,100 tons, up 1,825 tons [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,326 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 21 yuan, down 7 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 9,550 lots [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main - second - contract spread is 110 yuan, up 35 yuan. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 14 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,670 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,580 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 30 yuan, down 680 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 45 yuan, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 96 yuan, down 9 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 2.67 dollars, down 2.09 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina in the current month is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in the current month is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina in the current month is 17 million tons, down 4 million tons; the import volume is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the current month is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the production of electrolytic aluminum in the current month is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781 tons; the export volume is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. - The production of aluminum products in the current month is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in the current month is 49 million tons, down 6 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the current month is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy in the current month is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the current month is 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the national real - estate prosperity index in the current month is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy in the current month is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the production of automobiles in the current month is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.34%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.30%, down 0.34% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.03%, down 0.0073; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.28, down 0.0236 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9% [2]. - A Fed governor will miss the policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged [2]. - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, and residents' employment expectations are cold [2]. - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures [2]. - The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan and deploy the second - half economic work [2].