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首程控股(00697):深度研究报告:拥抱机器人浪潮,跃迁式变革开启

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is transitioning into a smart infrastructure asset service provider, leveraging its strong asset operation and financing capabilities while actively investing in the robotics industry to create a complete ecosystem [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as "首长国际," began its strategic transformation in 2016 and has established a solid moat in asset operation and financing, now focusing on building a robotics ecosystem [1][15]. - It has a diversified shareholder structure, backed by top global strategic investors including Shougang Group and Orix Group [22][23]. Performance Analysis - The asset operation business has shown stable growth, with revenue reaching HKD 920 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [2][30]. - The financing business has experienced historical volatility but is expected to stabilize due to changes in accounting standards [2][35]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% before 2027, with cumulative dividends exceeding HKD 5.2 billion over 18 years [2][46]. - The company has over HKD 5 billion in available cash, with positive operating cash flow [2][49]. Robotics Business - The company has established a 10 billion RMB robotics investment fund in partnership with Beijing Guoguan, investing in various high-quality robotics companies [3][55]. - It leverages its extensive operational scenarios, including numerous parking lots and industrial parks, to shorten commercialization cycles and enhance product iteration [3][55]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in parking lot operations, with a robust cash flow foundation supporting its robotics business expansion [4][24]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 15.2 billion, 17.1 billion, and 18.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 5.8 billion, 7.1 billion, and 8.2 billion [4][24].