轻工制造行业跟踪报告：行业上半年业绩预告表现平淡，“反内卷”下关注行业利润修复

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [4][27]. Core Insights - The light industry performance forecast is subdued, with a pre-profit rate of 46%. As of July 28, 2025, 54 out of 165 A-share companies in the light industry have released performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 33%, ranking 6th among eight major consumption sectors [1][9][24]. - The paper-making sector shows a higher pre-profit rate of 67%, while the packaging and printing, home goods, and entertainment goods sectors have pre-profit rates below 50% [2][14][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of companies in the light industry experiencing losses, with 17% of companies forecasting their first loss in the first half of 2025, and 37% of companies continuing to report losses for two consecutive years [1][10][24]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Performance - The light industry has a pre-profit rate of 46%, ranking 8th among consumption sectors. The number of companies forecasting profit growth has decreased compared to the previous year, with only 17% expecting an increase and 0% expecting slight increases [1][10][24]. Paper-making Sector - The paper-making sector has a pre-profit rate of 67%, indicating stable profitability. The disclosure rate for this sector is 39%, with a notable performance differentiation among companies [2][14][15]. - In the first half of 2025, the paper-making sector saw a mix of performance forecasts, with 1 company expecting profit growth, 3 expecting a decrease, and 2 companies turning losses into profits [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities related to the "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to eliminate excessive competition and promote reasonable pricing based on actual costs. This is expected to help restore profitability in the paper-making sector [3][24][25]. - Additionally, the report recommends paying attention to opportunities arising from the "two new" policies, which aim to stimulate investment and consumption through government support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement [3][24][25].