有色金属日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively neutral stance with poor operability [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish bias but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] Core Views - The market is closely watching the implementation of US tariff agreements with Europe and China, the Fed meeting, and a series of real - economy indicators. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed lower on Wednesday, and attention is paid to the support of the MA40 moving average. The decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average, and short positions should be held against the integer - level resistance [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The off - season demand decline led to inventory accumulation, and the apparent consumption decreased significantly year - on - year. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum market, and the scrap aluminum market had tight supply. The profit of aluminum alloy was negative, with short - term price pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices rose sharply, with increased industry profits, record - high operating capacity, and excess inventory. It is recommended to short against the recent high of 3500 yuan [2] Zinc - There is a stalemate between bulls and bears near the support level of 22,500 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for the result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The TC continued to rise in August, and there is still room to short the mine's profit on the futures market. Adopt a mid - term short - on - rebound strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 4300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the day. The long - term supply expectation from the mining end may suppress tin prices at high levels. In August, the supply and demand sides continued to compete, and the increase in domestic social inventory is expected to be limited. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated sharply. The total market inventory continued to rise to 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream was generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and short - term light - position long positions can be tried [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, mainly affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply increased slightly in most regions except Xinjiang, and the demand decreased due to an incident in the organic silicon DMC industry. The price is at a historical low, and it is recommended to take light - position long positions [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed sharply higher again. Although the news of capacity acquisition was false, it still boosted market sentiment. The factory inventory continued to decline, and there is an expectation of transfer to warehouse receipts. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and be cautious about short - selling unilaterally [10]