中原期货晨会纪要-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various market sectors including macro - indicators, commodities, and major trading products. It details price movements, supply - demand dynamics, and policy - related impacts on different assets, offering insights for investment decisions. Summary by Catalog 1. Macro Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 204.57 points (-0.456%), the Nasdaq Index dropped by 80.29 points (-0.379%), and the S&P 500 declined by 18.91 points (-0.296%) on July 30, 2025, compared to the previous day [2]. - SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.101 to 1.37, a decline of 6.885% [2]. - The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.017 (-0.017%), and the US dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. 2. Commodity Futures Metals - COMEX gold increased by 69.0 to 3383.00 (2.082%), COMEX silver rose by 0.055 to 38.39 (0.143%) [2]. - LME copper increased by 40.50 to 9803.00 (0.415%), while LME aluminum decreased by 25.0 to 2606.00 (-0.950%) [2]. - Domestic metals such as gold, silver, copper, etc., also showed varying degrees of price changes, with domestic gold rising by 2.88 to 774.32 (0.373%) [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (NYMEX) increased by 2.27 to 69.25 (3.389%), ICE Brent crude rose by 2.17 to 71.77 (3.118%) [2]. - Domestic energy and chemical products like coking coal, coke, and natural rubber also had price increases, with coking coal rising by 43.0 to 1163.50 (3.838%) and coke increasing by 74.50 to 1707.50 (4.562%) [4]. Agricultural Products - CBOT soybeans decreased by 3.25 to 1008.25 (-0.321%), CBOT soybean meal dropped by 3.10 to 276.30 (-1.110%) [2]. - Domestic agricultural products such as yellow soybean No. 1 and yellow soybean No. 2 had small price increases, with yellow soybean No. 2 rising by 16.0 to 3661.00 (0.439%) [4]. 3. Macro News - From July 28th to 29th, China - US economic and trade talks will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [6]. - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% [6]. - China's social logistics volume in the first half of the year was 171.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [7]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be weakly bullish in the short term but still in a downward trend [11]. - The fat market is expected to be volatile, with trading light and basis stable [11]. - The sugar market is facing a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors, with prices suggested to be traded in the range of 5820 - 5870 yuan/ton [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda prices in Shandong are expected to fluctuate slightly, and attention is recommended to the 9 - 11 spread [13]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, affected by the weakening of agricultural demand and overall market conditions [13]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices may be restricted by trade optimism but still face pressure if the 50% tariff is implemented, and are likely to be in high - level consolidation [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be in high - level oscillations due to supply increases and consumption off - season [15]. Iron and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by policy expectations and are trending strongly, with rebar closing at 3380 and hot - rolled coil at 3546 [16]. Option Finance - The current option market shows a pattern of differentiation between futures and spot, with investors advised to focus on inter - variety strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities and buy straddles to bet on volatility [18][19].