原油：若美国对俄罗斯实施二级制裁，对原油盘面的影响有多大？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff threat is essentially a political gaming tool with a weak intention to block Russian oil, and its impact on the crude oil market will be limited to short - term emotional shocks. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, as major macro uncertainties are gradually eliminated, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals [1][12]. Summary by Directory Policy Nature: Political Gaming Takes Precedence over Energy Blockade - The core logic of the US's secondary sanctions signal against Russia is more of a geopolitical pressure tool rather than a substantial energy blockade. The measure of imposing a 100% tariff on countries like China, India, and Brazil that purchase Russian oil has more political intent than actual enforcement effectiveness. Trump chose to start sanctions through an executive order, leaving a 10 - 12 - day negotiation window and room for flexible adjustment. Considering the export and import structures between relevant countries and the US, the sanctions are likely to stay at the level of "extreme pressure", creating a market expectation of "high threat, low execution" [2]. Historical Reference: The "Pulse - like Impact - Rapid Fading" Path of January Sanctions - The Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil tankers in January this year can be regarded as a preview of the current situation. Although it initially caused Brent crude to jump 6.8% to $81.2 per barrel in 3 trading days, the actual effect was quickly disproven. - There were structural loopholes in the evasion mechanism. Countries like India and Turkey used old tankers for STS transfer, and China and Russia increased the proportion of RMB settlement. Some ports quickly took over the unloading demand of Russian oil [3]. - The market expectation self - corrected. After the 5th trading day of the sanctions announcement, the oil price started to decline because the actual export volume did not drop significantly. Russia adjusted its export structure, and the overall export volume quickly recovered. The freight increase was lower than expected [4]. - Fundamentals played the ultimate leading role. During the sanctions, OPEC+ maintained a production cut of 160 million barrels per day, US shale oil production was stable, and OECD commercial inventories rose, which jointly suppressed the upward space of oil prices. Brent crude returned to the $75 - 80 range within a week. Compared with the current situation, the market has a higher tolerance for geopolitical disturbances, and short - term sharp fluctuations are unlikely to reappear [6]. Market Focus Shift: The OPEC+ Meeting Will Reshape the Oil Price Logic - As the Fed's interest - rate decision in July becomes clear, the crude oil market logic is accelerating its return to fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on August 3 will be a key turning point. - The continuity of the production - cut agreement is a focus. Whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary production cut of 100 million barrels per day is crucial. Maintaining the current policy may support the oil price, while relaxation may suppress the geopolitical premium. OPEC+ core members have already restored 191.9 million barrels per day of production, and the remaining voluntary production - cut quota is only 24.5 million barrels per day [7]. - Russia's production statement is important. Despite the sanctions threat, Russia's crude oil production has been stable. If it promises to maintain production discipline at the meeting, it will strengthen the market's expectation of supply tightness. However, the impact of sanctions on global supply is limited due to Russia's adjusted export structure [8]. - The signal of idle - capacity release is significant. Saudi Arabia has about 300 million barrels per day of idle capacity. Whether it hints at increasing production in the fourth quarter will directly affect the medium - and long - term oil price trend. The market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a production increase of 54.8 million barrels per day in September, which may exacerbate the concern of oversupply. OPEC+ decisions usually have a 4 - 6 - week impact on oil prices, longer than the short - term impact of geopolitical events [9]. Viewpoint Summary: Short - Term Disturbances Do Not Change the Medium - Term Pattern - Trump's tariff threat is a short - term emotional shock. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the market logic is shifting from geopolitical gaming to fundamentals. The global crude oil market shows a "tight balance" feature, and factors such as stable US shale oil production and rising OECD inventories restrict the upside space of oil prices. Investors should rationally view the current geopolitical premium, hedge the emotional premium in the short term, and focus on structural opportunities after the OPEC+ meeting in the medium term [12].