煤焦日报：政策预期兑现，煤焦宽幅震荡-20250730

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Coke: On July 30, the coke main contract closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.00%. The current fundamental pressure on coke is not significant, and the expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides cost - side support. After a short - term correction, coke futures strengthened again [3][31]. - Coking Coal: The main logic for the recent rise was "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification". However, the actual impact of the industry policies remains to be verified. Since the night session last Friday, the coking coal main contract has corrected. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, coking coal futures continued to adjust widely. In the short term, the release of positive sentiment led to a phased price correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 62.81 billion yuan, including 10.1 billion yuan of general bonds and 52.71 billion yuan of special bonds [7]. - On July 30, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 5 clean coal was 86.8 US dollars/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at 95.2 US dollars/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,420 yuan/ton | +7.58% | +16.39% | - 15.98% | - 28.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,390 yuan/ton | +0.72% | +19.83% | - 14.20% | - 24.86% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 yuan/ton | +20.39% | +43.35% | +5.08% | - 22.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,480 yuan/ton | +0.68% | +22.31% | - 0.67% | - 28.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,650 yuan/ton | +10.00% | +32.00% | +7.84% | - 17.09% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.5 yuan/ton | +4.00% | 1,722.0 yuan/ton | 1,632.0 yuan/ton | 54,649 | 7,422 | 29,358 | - 1,823 | | Coking Coal | | 1,117.0 yuan/ton | +2.71% | 1,172.0 yuan/ton | 1,061.0 yuan/ton | 1,748,394 | 157,517 | 307,743 | - 29,947 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and others, as well as charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][15][17][20][23][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The coke market has strong potential. With low fundamental pressure and cost - side support from coking coal, coke futures are expected to maintain strength after a short - term correction [3][31]. - Coking Coal: In the short term, the market will experience wide - range adjustments due to policy expectations and the release of positive sentiment. In the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise as the industry undergoes capacity optimization and upgrading [4][32].