Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].
冠通每日交易策略-20250730
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-30 10:20