政策密集，多维度梳理化工子行业“反内卷”突破口-20250730

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-dimensional approach to address "involution" in the chemical industry, focusing on supply, demand, and government collaboration [1][3][25] - Recent policies from various government bodies aim to regulate costs, manage carbon emissions, and eliminate outdated production methods to combat "involution" [2][43] - The report identifies high concentration and deep losses in specific sub-industries as key areas for intervention, suggesting that these sectors may be more amenable to achieving "anti-involution" goals [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released guidelines to address the causes of "involution" and proposed measures for local governments and enterprises [1][12] - The report highlights the importance of establishing product standards and improving the efficiency of accounts receivable collection to mitigate "involution" [26][32] Section 2: Recent Policy Developments - Recent updates to the Price Law and other regulations aim to strengthen cost supervision and adjust pricing mechanisms to combat "involution" [2][39] - The NDRC has introduced a new framework for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting high-energy-consuming projects [43][46] Section 3: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Chemical Sub-Industries - The report analyzes 127 chemical sub-industries based on capacity, concentration, and profitability, identifying those with high loss levels and concentration as potential targets for "anti-involution" measures [4][11] - Specific industries such as soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon are highlighted as areas of interest due to their alignment with the identified criteria [4][29] Section 4: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The report suggests enhancing industry self-regulation, increasing innovation, and establishing standards to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [36][34] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between industry policies and competition policies to ensure sustainable development [24][38]