Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 10:45Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, paying attention to operational risks [2]. - Glass: The probability of a correction increases. Although the glass fundamentals have improved, the terminal demand has not improved. It is recommended to short the glass on rallies, paying attention to operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Prices: Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1311 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1191 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Positions: Soda ash main - contract open interest is 864,033 hands, up 20,432 hands; glass main - contract open interest is 959,127 hands, up 76,146 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 330,368, up 19,330; glass top 20 net position is - 196,422, up 24,416 [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,355 tons, up 400 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Spread: Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 89 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan. Soda ash basis is - 18 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Soda Ash: North China heavy - soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; Central China heavy - soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light - soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Central China light - soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [2]. - Glass: Shahe glass large plates are 1,192 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; Central China glass large plates are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Operating Rates: Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Capacities and Lines: Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 223, unchanged [2]. - Inventories: Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real Estate: Real estate new - construction area cumulative value is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Sino - US Trade: China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that have been suspended and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication [2]. - Oil Price: The new round of oil price adjustment is stranded, and the oil price remains unchanged this round [2]. - Macroeconomy: From January to June, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the rectification of involution - style competition and expand industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation [2]. - Photovoltaic Industry: Some self - media reports about the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [2].