Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-30 10:42Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Domestic urea demand is weak, export docking falls short of expectations, new orders at factories slow down, and shipping directions decrease. Despite appropriate restocking by compound fertilizer companies, it provides limited support, and there is still a trend of inventory accumulation in the short - term for urea enterprises. The short - term trading range for the UR2509 contract is recommended to be between 1730 - 1800 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1742 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 147157 lots, down 5823 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22228 lots, up 3865 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 2900 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - In the spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 28 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; enterprise inventory is 85.88 million tons, down 3.67 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.59%, down 0.87%; the daily urea output is 193500 tons, down 2000 tons. The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6031340 tons, down 261890 tons [2] 下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 33.58%, up 1.03%; the melamine operating rate is 65.2%, up 0.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 104 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 499 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 416.82 million tons, down 64.08 million tons; the weekly melamine output is 32400 tons, up 500 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons from last week, a 6.81% increase. As of July 24, the port sample inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons, a 0.37% increase. As of July 24, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 135.47 million tons, down 1.40 million tons, a 1.02% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, down 0.87% [2]