瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the silicon ferro - alloy 2509 contract closed at 6008, up 0.77%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon ferro - alloy was reported at 5830, up 80 yuan/ton. With low - level operation of production, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and generally weak steel demand expectations, the ferro - alloy production profit is currently negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On July 30, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6116, down 0.42%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5900. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry, and supply may decline. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' start - up rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, inventory is moderately high, and downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Market - wise, this month's steel mill procurement prices have rebounded compared to the tender prices. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly stronger operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,116.00元/吨，环比下降96.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为6,008.00元/吨，环比下降102.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为651,212.00手，环比下降4189.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为438,378.00手，环比增加6020.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 120,404.00手，环比下降3885.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 47,806.00手，环比下降6249.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加18.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为132.00元/吨，环比增加26.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,736.00张，环比下降454.00张；SF仓单为22,003.00张，环比下降6.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900.00元/吨，持平；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,870.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710.00元/吨，环比上涨150.00元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,830.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5688.00元/吨，环比上涨78.00元；SF主力合约基差为 - 178.00元/吨，环比上涨182.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 216.00元/吨，环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为37.00元/吨度，持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.50万吨，环比增加21.00万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比上涨1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比上涨0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480.00吨，环比增加3640.00吨；硅铁供应为102,300.00吨，环比增加2300.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000.00吨，环比下降11300.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123670.00吨，环比增加289.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20065.70吨，环比增加52.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，持平；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.40万吨，环比下降336.10万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人与美方牵头人在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行会谈，双方将推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天 [2]. - IMF将2025年中国经济增速大幅上调0.8个百分点至4.8% [2]. - 中国钢铁工业协会会长表示，2025年国家将继续实施粗钢产量调控政策，下半年相关调控措施将显现，钢铁供需矛盾将缓解 [2]. - 今年夏天全球多地极端高温带动我国空调出口增长，1 - 6月我国空调累计出口额达93.5亿美元，同比增长近10%；对欧盟国家空调出口量同比增长43.2%，出口金额达37.6亿美元，创同期历史新高 [2].