粤开宏观：政治局会议释放的九大信号

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties in the economic environment[5] - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods and proactive fiscal measures[7][8] Policy Direction - The government aims to maintain stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with an emphasis on timely adjustments based on economic conditions[9][10] - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new fiscal deficits and special bonds is planned for 2025, with 5,550 billion yuan of long-term special bonds already issued by June 2025[11] Consumption and Services - The government is focusing on boosting service consumption, which is currently a weak point in the economy, by expanding the scope of trade-in policies to include service sectors[12][13] - The trade-in program for consumer goods is expected to generate over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, accounting for more than 6.5% of total retail sales in the first half of 2025[12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a slow recovery phase, with urban renewal initiatives being a key strategy to stabilize housing demand[25] - Despite a brief recovery in early 2025, real estate sales and investment have shown negative growth since May, necessitating further government intervention[25] Debt Management - The government is committed to managing local government debt risks, prohibiting the creation of new hidden debts, and promoting the clearance of financing platforms[26][27] - The focus is on transforming local financing platforms to operate independently from government control by mid-2027[27][28] Capital Market Stability - The capital market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.9% since the beginning of the year, stabilizing around 3,600 points[29] - Efforts will be made to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to maintain its upward momentum[29][30]