Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - Price Range Forecast: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - Month - spread Data: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - Price Spread: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].
碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250730
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-30 11:35