国投期货农产品日报-20250730

Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions. It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to weather and policy guidance, as well as market supply and demand changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans stopped falling and rebounded, with reduced positions in the futures market. The third round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States reached a consensus to continue to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend the period for 90 days. The short - term precipitation in Northeast China is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the risk of waterlogging. The weather in the Midwest of the United States is favorable for soybean production, and preparations should be made for a potential bumper harvest [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The third - round Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached an agreement to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend for 90 days. In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas in the United States is slightly higher than normal, and the soil humidity is better than last year. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The high good - to - excellent rate puts pressure on US soybeans. The market should continue to observe the weather in the producing areas and treat the market as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The technical form of US soybean oil is in a sideways shock. The high ratio of US soybean oil to tank and the strengthening of the international crude oil market may boost the domestic vegetable oil market. The short - term weather is favorable for US soybean production. Overseas vegetable oil prices are stronger than those in China, increasing the probability of trading opportunities. Due to the long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the upcoming palm oil production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the short - term phenomenon of strong oil and weak meal. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures prices generally rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills increased by 0.7 million tons to 1.9 million tons, the port inventory decreased by nearly 3 million tons, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal in East China has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks. The Sino - US consensus on continuing to extend the suspension of tariffs for 90 days, but uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian agricultural product trade still exist, which may intensify concerns about rapeseed import bottlenecks. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, and demand growth is limited due to the high price difference compared with competing products. The domestic import of Canadian rapeseed is cautious, the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed - related futures prices may fluctuate in a high - level range [6]. Corn - Corn futures continued to fluctuate. CGS will hold two auctions of imported corn tomorrow, including 186,200 tons of US corn and 8,600 tons of Ukrainian corn. The spot price in Shandong remained stable. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The current domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link. Against the background of the decline in US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuated and declined during the day, continuing the recent correction. Only the July contract strengthened slightly. The spot price was slightly adjusted and basically stable. Considering the sufficient medium - term supply of live pigs and the rapid cooling of the policy - driven market this week, live pig futures may have reached their peak, and the probability of subsequent decline and fluctuation has increased. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies. Attention should be paid to the industry's slaughter rhythm, slaughter weight, and production capacity changes [8]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable in most areas and slightly declined in some local areas. The August contract is approaching delivery, and the futures price continued to fall. The off - season contracts continued to be weak, and the October and November contracts fluctuated and fell back to near the previous lows. The overall capital increased positions. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal peak - season upward trend. In the long - term, egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom [9].