2025年7月政治局会议解读：当政策选择久久为功

Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, reflecting strong vitality and resilience in the Chinese economy[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to "strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals," indicating a stronger policy determination for the second half of the year[8] Macro Policy Direction - The macro policy is characterized by continuity, flexibility, and foresight, with a focus on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in policy measures[8] - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," emphasizing the acceleration of government bond issuance and usage, similar to the directives from the April meeting[8] Short-term vs Long-term Policies - Short-term policies are increasingly aligning with long-term reform goals, focusing on principles rather than detailed implementation[8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of long-term planning and reform to navigate "intense international competition," indicating that short-term economic policies will support long-term transitions[8] Key Areas of Focus - The meeting identified six key areas for work deployment: expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms, increasing openness, preventing risks, ensuring people's livelihoods, and organizational leadership[15] - Specific measures include promoting service consumption, enhancing the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and addressing capacity management in key industries[8] Risk Considerations - Risks include amplified volatility in the external economic environment and uncertainties in policy decisions based on changing external conditions[17] - The sustainability of domestic demand growth remains uncertain, particularly in the third quarter of 2025[17]