国投期货软商品日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread dropping. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a new low in the past 20 years. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and downstream procurement was for rigid demand. It's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region, the expected sugarcane yield per hectare is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. However, most consulting companies believe the sugar production will exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the rubber market sentiment weakened. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, but some plants are planning to have maintenance in early August. The demand in the terminal market is average, and tire inventories are increasing. It's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The supply from New Zealand is low. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports increased by 2.72% week - on - week. The total log inventory at national ports decreased. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]