黑色产业数据每日监测-20250730

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On July 30, black commodity futures showed mixed performance. Steel prices strengthened, and steel mills' production profits continued to recover. High - level hot metal supported the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season, and there were rumors of steel mill production restrictions in the north, so the actual demand growth of ferroalloys was limited [1]. - The production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese improved. Short - term production of both was expected to increase, which might suppress prices, but there were also expectations of supply contraction, leading to a long - short game in the supply side [1]. - Manganese ore prices were rising, which supported the silicomanganese market. The lanthanum market was relatively stable, and its price was expected to improve in the short term [1]. - At the end of the month, there were many important events, and both long and short sides in the fundamentals lacked strong driving forces to break the situation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3315 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3483 yuan/ton, up 0.81%; the iron ore main contract closed at 789 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Steel prices strengthened, and high - level hot metal supported the rigid demand for ferroalloys. However, terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season, and there were rumors of production restrictions, so the actual demand growth of ferroalloys was limited, and the upward driving force for the market was insufficient [1]. Supply - The production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese improved. Inner Mongolia's ferrosilicon production and operating rate increased month - on - month, and the production area of silicomanganese also had good production enthusiasm. Short - term production was expected to increase, which might suppress prices, but there were also expectations of supply contraction, resulting in a long - short game in the supply side [1]. Cost - Manganese ore prices were rising, which supported the silicomanganese market. The lanthanum market was relatively stable, and its price was expected to improve in the short term [1]. Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - For rebar, investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - For hot - rolled coil, investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market is expected to show wide - range oscillations in the short term [1].