玉米淀粉日报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the US corn planting is completed, the US corn market is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline, but the potential for further decline is limited due to possible weather - related speculations. China has reinstated a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Foreign corn imports are profitable, with the August import price from Brazil at 1,971 yuan. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and tight supply in North China. The corn starch market sees inventory reduction, and the price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 09 contracts of both corn and starch are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2,218 with a 0.14% increase, C2605 at 2,263 with no change, C2509 at 2,312 with a 0.43% increase. Their trading volumes decreased by 47.04%, 46.94%, and 32.39% respectively, and the open interests decreased by 2.28%, 2.85%, and 5.54% respectively. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2,596 with no change, CS2605 at 2,638 with a 0.04% increase, CS2509 at 2,683 with a 0.63% increase. Their trading volumes decreased by 30.17%, 46.09%, and 38.71% respectively, and the open interests changed by 3.77%, 9.67%, and - 5.63% respectively [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 2,270 yuan with no change, while the price in Shouguang increased by 20 yuan. The basis for corn in different regions ranged from - 72 to 218. Starch spot prices also varied. The price of Longfeng starch increased by 50 yuan, and the basis for starch in different regions ranged from 162 to 382 [3]. 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 was - 45 with a 3 - point increase, C05 - C09 was - 49 with a 10 - point decrease, C09 - C01 was 94 with a 7 - point increase. Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 42 with a 1 - point decrease, CS05 - CS09 was - 45 with a 16 - point decrease, CS09 - CS01 was 87 with a 17 - point increase. Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 371 with a 7 - point increase, CS01 - C01 was 378 with a 3 - point decrease, CS05 - C05 was 375 with a 1 - point increase [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is weak but has limited downside due to potential weather speculation. China's tariff policies on US corn and sorghum are in place, and foreign corn imports are profitable. The northern port flat - hatch prices are stable, and the Northeast corn is stable. North China's corn supply is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic corn demand is weak, and the short - term corn spot price is relatively stable. The 09 corn contract is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [5][7]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is strong. The starch inventory has decreased this week, with the factory inventory at 129.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from last week. The by - product price is strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 09 starch contract is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The domestic 09 corn will continue to have narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Buy spot and short 09 corn in a rolling manner, and wait and see on the spread between 09 corn and starch [9][10]. 3.4 Corn Options - For enterprises with spot, they can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term investors can try to sell on rallies [13]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread, which help to visually understand the price trends and relationships of corn and corn starch [14][16][20].