锌：资金积极计价政策影响锌价何去何从

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].