橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围占优，能化震荡企稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. After a previous sharp rise, bulls have substantial profits. With the temporary cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has been reversed [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. As China and the US conduct the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden, the macro - sentiment has improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase. The utilization rate of tire production capacity has slightly increased, but the overall shipment is flat and inventory has slightly risen. The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in June 2025 was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%. The weekly production was 1.8989 million tons. The inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons. The profit of methanol - to - olefins futures has decreased significantly [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422. US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels. The net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rate trends [17][19][21] - Methanol: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for methanol. - Crude Oil: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for crude oil.