策略研究·点评报告：7月政治局会议对A股市场的投资指引

Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting assessed that China's economy has shown "steady progress" in 2025, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, including 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2[4] - The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating ongoing supportive measures for economic growth[5] - The meeting highlighted the need for macro policies to "continue to exert force and increase strength as needed," aiming to stabilize market expectations and support economic recovery[6] Policy Focus - The meeting prioritized domestic demand, aiming to expand consumer spending and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, particularly in sectors like elderly care and tourism[10] - It underscored the importance of addressing "involution" in industries, promoting orderly competition, and regulating local investment behaviors[10] - The meeting reiterated the significance of urban renewal and risk prevention in real estate, emphasizing strict measures against new hidden debts[13] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market has shown positive signals, with trading volumes remaining high and investor sentiment active, supported by a rising financing balance above 1.9 trillion yuan[16] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with the potential for long-term upward trends driven by domestic new momentum and policy support[16] - Key investment areas include anti-involution policies, technology growth sectors, high-dividend assets, and consumer sectors boosted by policy incentives[17] Consumer Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 5.5%[31] - The government plans to implement measures to stimulate consumption, which is expected to enhance investor confidence and drive the performance of the consumer sector upward[31]