Guoxin Securities·2025-07-30 13:07Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare beverage platform enterprise with a long-term growth perspective, benefiting from deep channel barriers and sustainable growth [1][2]. - The packaging water and sugar-free tea sectors are in a long lifecycle with good growth potential, and the company has a leading market share in these segments [2][3]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts indicate strong growth, with expected revenues of 501 billion, 568 billion, and 632 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 147.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 189.9 billion CNY for the same years [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the packaging water sector, with a concentrated shareholding structure and efficient management mechanisms [2][23]. - The founder, Zhong Shanshan, practices long-termism and has a strong vision for the company's growth [2][23]. Packaging Water Market - The packaging water market is projected to reach 247 billion CNY in 2024, with expected mid-single-digit growth driven by large packaging and bulk sales [2][42]. - The company has established a significant lead in the packaging water sector, benefiting from the long lifecycle and ongoing growth of this market [2][52]. Soft Drink Sector - The company has positioned itself well in the rapidly evolving soft drink market, with increasing profitability across various product categories [3][35]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantage in the soft drink sector, with a focus on health-oriented products like sugar-free tea and functional beverages [3][35]. Competitive Barriers - Strong channel foundations and high-quality product endorsements create significant competitive barriers for the company [3][4]. - The company's long-term operational strategy and substantial investments in channels have solidified its market position [3][4]. Financial Analysis and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 501 billion, 568 billion, and 632 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 147.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 189.9 billion CNY respectively [5][3]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share, with projections of 1.32, 1.51, and 1.69 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][3]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a reasonable price range of 56.65 to 59.48 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current stock price [3][6]. - The company is recognized as a rare platform enterprise in the soft drink sector, with strong channels and product endorsements, indicating continued growth potential in the medium to long term [3][6].