兴业期货日度策略-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - Bullish: Stock index futures, silver, propylene, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, float glass, methanol, polyolefin, rubber [1][2][4][7][8][9] - Bearish: Treasury bonds [1] - Sideways: Gold, copper, aluminum and alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soda ash, crude oil, cotton [1][3][4][5][7][8][9] Core Views - Stock Index Futures: With positive policy expectations, continuous improvement in liquidity, and a relatively stable macro - environment, the stock index is expected to rise further [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market. There may still be upward pressure, and long - term risks may be more significant [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold is in a sideways pattern, lacking a trend - driving force in the short term. Silver is in a bullish pattern, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to converge [1][3]. - Base Metals: Copper, aluminum, alumina, and nickel are in a sideways pattern due to factors such as uncertain trade policies and complex supply - demand situations [3]. - Energy and Chemicals: Propylene has strong demand; crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors with risk premiums rising; methanol and polyolefin are bullish due to factors like supply tightening and production capacity delays [2][7][8][9]. - Steel and Coking: Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore) are supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions. Coking coal and coke are expected to rise slightly [4][5][7]. - Building Materials: Soda ash is in a sideways pattern with an oversupply situation. Float glass is bullish, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - Agricultural Products: Cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure. Rubber's price increase rate has slowed, and its supply - demand is in a double - growth pattern [9]. 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The trading volume has recovered, and the futures are stronger than the spot. With a stable macro - environment, policy support, and improved liquidity, it is expected to rise further. Suggest to hold existing long positions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market fell significantly. Due to the strong expectation of "anti - involution" policies and positive risk appetite, it is in a bearish pattern. Attention should be paid to central bank actions [1]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - Gold: After the third - round Sino - US trade negotiation, there is no major breakthrough. The short - term lacks a trend - driving force, and it is in a sideways pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions and considering short - term long positions on dips [1][3]. - Silver: With the correction of economic expectations and the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding long positions in the AG2510 contract [1][2]. Base Metals - Copper: The details of US copper tariffs are unclear, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is in a sideways pattern [3]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Alumina is affected by sentiment and has high price volatility. Aluminum has a tight supply - demand balance in the medium - term, with a more robust support at the bottom [3]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are not significantly improved, and the surplus situation suppresses prices. It is in a sideways pattern, and the strategy of selling call options can be continued [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Propylene: Due to strong demand, new long positions can be entered [2]. - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors such as possible sanctions on Russia, the risk premium has increased. It is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to supply - side risks [7]. - Methanol: With planned device overhauls and good olefin demand, the supply is tightening in the short term, and it is in a bullish pattern [7]. - Polyolefin: Affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the delay of new production capacity, it is in a bullish pattern [9]. Steel and Coking - Rebar: The spot price has rebounded, and the supply - demand structure is healthy. Supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions [4][5]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The spot price has risen, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Supported by environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern [4][5]. - Iron Ore: With high steel mill profits and healthy supply - demand, it is in a bullish pattern in the short term. Suggest relevant option and arbitrage strategies [4][5]. - Coking Coal: The market expects supply to tighten, and the fundamentals support prices. However, due to market uncertainties, short - term unilateral trading should be cautious [7]. - Coke: It is expected to follow the trend of coking coal, and the fourth - round price increase is being promoted [7]. Building Materials - Soda Ash: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, but the short - term surplus has narrowed. It is in a sideways pattern, and new positions should wait and see. The strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - Float Glass: The fundamentals are stronger than soda ash, and the "anti - involution" logic may improve the supply - demand situation. It is in a bullish pattern. Suggest long - position strategies and continue the long - short arbitrage strategy [7]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The new - year cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure due to weak demand. It is in a sideways - bullish pattern [9]. - Rubber: The demand is expected to improve, but the supply is also increasing. The price increase rate has slowed, and it is in a slightly bullish pattern [9].