Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase, and the short - term tightness in the trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestically, the sales and production speed is fast, and inventory reduction is ahead of schedule. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap has become the focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it is expected to support sugar prices. However, due to the weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. - The decline in Brazil's sugar production year - on - year has raised market concerns, but it has already been priced in the market. Considering the expected loose global sugar supply - demand situation, raw sugar is expected to trade in a range in the short term. In the domestic market, the inventory reduction of domestic sugar is progressing well, and inventory pressure is limited. Affected by the international market, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,804, down 63 or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 234,894 (an increase of 74,893) and an open interest of 310,585 (a decrease of 33,554); SR01 closed at 5,701, down 74 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 21,005 (an increase of 3,812) and an open interest of 45,235 (an increase of 693); SR05 closed at 5,615, down 47 or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 196 (an increase of 49) and an open interest of 458 (an increase of 78) [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 6,120, 5,905, 6,320, 6,050, 6,175, 6,135, and 6,420 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 316, 101, 516, 246, 371, 331, and 616 [5]. - Inter - month Spreads: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 86 (up 27), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 189 (down 16), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 103 (up 11) [5]. - Import Profits: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of - 0.2, and a freight of 38, the in - quota price was 4,474, the out - of - quota price was 5,699, the spread with Liuzhou was 421, the spread with Rizhao was 436, and the spread with the futures market was 105; for Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of 0.9, and a freight of 18, the in - quota price was 4,525, the out - of - quota price was 5,766, the spread with Liuzhou was 354, the spread with Rizhao was 369, and the spread with the futures market was 38 [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - International Market: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate, and the short - term tight trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestic Market: The fast sales and production speed and pre - emptive inventory reduction, along with the tightening of syrup import policies, make the filling of the production - demand gap a focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it will support sugar prices. However, due to weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade slightly stronger in a range, but the upside potential is limited. Long positions are recommended to gradually take profits and exit [11]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - Options: Sell put options [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices, spot price spreads, basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][23][27][29][32]
银河期货白糖日报-20250730
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-30 13:08