Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's growth and the annual target[4] - The construction sector's GDP growth was only 0.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards new economic sectors like information technology[4] Policy Direction - The Politburo emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations[4] - A more proactive fiscal policy is required, with an acceleration in government bond issuance to enhance fund utilization efficiency[6] Fiscal Measures - In the first half of 2025, special bonds and long-term bonds totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.7 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, leaving approximately 1.3 trillion yuan unutilized[6] - The government plans to issue 3.8 trillion yuan in special bonds in the second half of the year to support fiscal spending[6] Consumption and Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting domestic consumption, particularly through service consumption, which has a significant multiplier effect on employment[5] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on both goods and services[5] Risk Management - The meeting called for proactive measures to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[12] - A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in debt for debt resolution has been issued this year, with 776.9 billion yuan in special new bonds issued to address corporate debt issues[13] Monetary Policy - The probability of significant monetary easing in Q3 is low, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs through structural monetary policy tools[17] - The average interest rate on new corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in Q1[22] Trade and Exports - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, despite challenges from external demand[26] - The government plans to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, emphasizing support for affected export enterprises[27] Real Estate Policy - The meeting did not mention measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards urban renewal and quality development rather than expansion[33]
7月政治局会议解读:财政“蓄水池”成为下半程的关键
Guoxin Securities·2025-07-30 13:09