Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rebounded after a decline, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 decreased. The CBOT US soybean main contract continued its downward trend. The domestic soybean meal spot market was resilient, and the live hog market was affected by supply - demand changes and macro - policies [2][15][17]. - In the short term, the M09 soybean meal contract may maintain a relatively strong trend, but the inventory pressure of oil mills will limit its upward space. The live hog near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on rallies should be sought [16][18]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 3010 yuan/ton, up 0.91% or 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Coastal mainstream area oil mills' quotes rose by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 14075 yuan/ton, a 0.53% decline. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live hogs was stable at 13.89 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.32% to 1008 cents/bu [2]. b. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with good overall soil moisture. There will be scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday in both the western and eastern regions, and the temperature will be above normal until Tuesday. Future weather is expected to have scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry from Thursday to Friday, and scattered showers from Saturday to Sunday. The temperature will drop on Wednesday and be near or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture and rainfall can relieve crop stress [3][4]. c. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle grain output is expected to reach 3.396 billion tons, a 14.2% year - on - year increase, with soybean output expected to reach 1.695 billion tons, a 14.7% increase, and soybean exports in the 2025 business year are expected to reach 1.0622 billion tons [5]. - On July 30, the import cost of US soybeans was 4008 yuan, down 43 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3874 yuan, down 21 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged at 3670 yuan [5]. - On July 29, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 455,000 tons, with spot trading volume at 161,000 tons and basis trading volume at 294,000 tons. The average trading price was 2899.24 yuan/ton, down 11.33 yuan/ton [5]. - In the first half of this year, Brazil exported 31.86 million tons of soybeans to China, and in June, the export volume was 10.62 million tons, accounting for 86.6% of China's soybean imports that month, a 9.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - Canadian processors crushed 856,096 tons of rapeseed in June, a 10% year - on - year increase. The rapeseed crushing output in the first 11 months of this year was 10.444 million tons, compared with 10.028 million tons in the same period last year [6]. - As of July 27, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 736,447 tons, compared with 1,167,310 tons in the same period last year; and the soybean meal imports were 1,210,554 tons, compared with 1,519,506 tons last year [6]. - As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, a 3.21% week - on - week decrease; the contract volume was 116,000 tons, a 9.24% week - on - week decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million heads, a 6.5% month - on - month decrease but a 23.7% year - on - year increase. The cumulative slaughter volume in the first six months was 183.55 million heads, a 14.5% year - on - year increase [7]. - The US consumer confidence index rebounded in July, and the number of JOLTs job openings in June fell to 7.437 million, reversing the upward trend of the previous two months [7]. - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% in its July 29 report, reflecting stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [7]. d. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: The CBOT US soybean futures continued to decline due to favorable weather forecasts for crop growth. The DCE soybean meal M09 contract rebounded. In the short term, it may maintain a relatively strong trend, but the oil mills' inventory pressure will limit its upward space. The spot market is resilient, but the forward basis has potential downward risks [15][16]. - Live Hogs: The supply of live hogs has been steadily increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. The macro - policy still dominates the market. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on rallies should be sought [17][18].
豆粕生猪：中美谈判无进展，豆粕期现齐涨
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-07-30 13:15