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7月政治局会议点评:如何理解政治局会议的内涵
Guotou Securities·2025-07-30 13:05

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, maintained a "steady progress" policy tone, emphasizing the need to stabilize employment, expand domestic demand, and ensure market expectations[3] - The meeting acknowledged the positive effects of policies implemented this year, while also recognizing the risks and challenges facing economic operations[3] - The focus has shifted from external uncertainties to strengthening domestic economic activities, with a call to "concentrate efforts on doing our own business well" in response to international trade disputes[3] Policy Measures - The meeting proposed to continue and enhance macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to fully unleash policy effects[4] - It emphasized the importance of improving the efficiency of fund usage while ensuring liquidity remains ample, with local government special bonds expected to continue to play a significant role[4] - The meeting reiterated the need to stimulate private investment and improve consumer demand through various measures, including long-term special bonds for consumption upgrades[5] Supply-Side Adjustments - The meeting highlighted the need for structural adjustments on the supply side, aiming to regulate chaotic competition among enterprises and promote orderly exit of outdated production capacity[5] - The "anti-involution" policy was emphasized again, which is expected to support industrial product prices and influence nominal economic trends in the medium term[6] - The anticipated adjustments in supply-side policies are expected to be more moderate compared to previous rounds, with a longer timeline for price normalization[6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The meeting indicated a focus on high-quality urban renewal and maintaining stability in the real estate market, with a low probability of large-scale stimulus policies in the sector in the near future[7] - The capital market's positive outlook was reinforced, with a commitment to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, supporting a stable recovery trend[7] - The report suggests that the nominal GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to gradually bottom out, providing fundamental support for the equity market[8]