债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告：水泥价格接近前低：2025年7月第4周

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related market trends in July 2025, including production, demand, CPI, and PPI indicators, and points out the price changes and influencing factors of various products and industries [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 882,100 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.18 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18; the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan was 92.0%, unchanged from July 18 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate shows weak and stable operation. On July 24, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined moderately [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows - The new - home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 201,000 square meters, a 31.4% decrease compared to the same period in June, an 18.8% decrease compared to the same period in July last year, and a 34.7% decrease compared to the same period in July 2023 [4][22]. - The retail sales of the auto market are stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year [4][23]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22 [4][30]. - Cement prices approach previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreasing by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively [4][31]. - Glass prices corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22 [4][37]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3% [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices weaken. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index fluctuates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, eggs (+5.1%) > fruits (+1.7%) > mutton (+0.9%) > vegetables (+0.7%) > chicken (+0.4%) > beef (-0.02%) > pork (-1.2%) [4][50]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices rise. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22 [4][53]. - Copper and aluminum prices decline. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index widens. On July 29, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 22, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% [4][58]. - Most industrial product prices rise. Since July, most industrial product prices have increased, with wire rod, cement, and steam coal prices decreasing month - on - month, while other industrial product prices increasing month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest increases. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [62].