7月政治局会议点评：债市影响几何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting's policy tone remains positive, emphasizing the implementation of macro - policies. Although the incremental information is limited, it is expected that short - term bond market interest rates will mainly fluctuate downward. The 10 - year bond yield of 1.75% has cost - effectiveness. The policy will support economic development in multiple aspects such as consumption, investment, and technology innovation, while continuing to promote debt resolution and urban renewal [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Economic Situation and Policy Orientation - The meeting affirmed the economic work this year, stating that the economy is stable with progress, but also recognized the existing risks and challenges. Macro - policies need to continue to exert force and be implemented in detail. Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and improving capital efficiency, while monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs [2]. - In terms of consumption, it is necessary to effectively release domestic demand potential, with a focus on both commodity and service consumption. In investment, high - quality "two major" construction should be promoted to stimulate private investment [2]. - Regarding foreign trade, the meeting requires stabilizing the basic situation of foreign trade and investment, helping affected enterprises, and optimizing export tax - refund policies [3]. 3.2 Technological Innovation and Market Order - The meeting places technological innovation in an important position, believing that it can drive the development of new - quality productivity and the recovery of the manufacturing industry. It also proposes to legally and regulatoryly manage the disorderly competition of enterprises [4]. 3.3 Debt Resolution and Urban Renewal - The meeting requires actively and steadily resolving local government debt risks, strictly prohibiting new implicit debts, and promoting the clearance of local financing platforms. It is estimated that the 2.8 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution quota will continue to be used [4]. - In the real estate sector, instead of mentioning the acquisition of existing housing, the meeting requires implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carrying out high - quality urban renewal, with potential investment in areas such as urban villages, old - community renovation, and underground pipeline network renovation reaching trillions of yuan [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's statement has limited incremental content for the bond market. It is expected that short - term bond market interest rates will mainly fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to changes in risk appetite, the stock - bond seesaw effect, government bond supply in the second half of the year, and the central bank's liquidity hedging. Currently, the 10 - year bond yield has reached 1.75%, which has cost - effectiveness [5].