流动性专题：8月资金面关注什么

Group 1: Market Liquidity - In July, the overnight funding rate rose significantly to 1.53% and then to 1.65% on July 24, raising concerns about liquidity[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net amount of 601.8 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos on July 25, indicating a supportive stance on liquidity[1] - By the end of July, the overnight funding rate decreased to 1.36%, with the balance of 7-day reverse repos significantly higher than seasonal levels[1] Group 2: Government Debt Supply - It is estimated that in August 2025, government debt issuance will be between 2.17 trillion and 2.39 trillion yuan, with net financing close to 1.17 trillion to 1.39 trillion yuan[5] - From January to July 2025, net financing from ordinary government bonds reached 2.56 trillion yuan, with various types of bonds contributing to a total of 9.02 trillion yuan utilized, accounting for 65% of the annual quota of 13.86 trillion yuan[5][27] - The issuance of local government bonds is progressing slightly faster than that of national bonds[5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The 1-year interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rate rose slightly after reaching around 1.6% in early July, with the market beginning to see price increases[6] - The maturity scale of CDs in August increased to 3.07 trillion yuan, indicating heightened renewal pressure[6] - The 1-year CD rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7%, with rates above 1.65% considered to have certain allocation value[6]