7月政治局会议学习心得

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 maintained the tone from April, emphasizing stable demand and high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [6] - GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with a projected 4.7% growth in the second half, aiming for an overall target of around 5% for the year [6] - The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" was highlighted, with a shift towards balancing qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth [6] Group 2: Policy Measures - Macro policies will focus on implementing existing measures, with limited new demand-side policies anticipated [6] - Consumer spending is expected to be supported by potential new policies for service consumption, with "old-for-new" programs showing a 11.4% year-on-year growth in related retail categories [6] - Investment will continue to prioritize "two heavy" projects, with a focus on infrastructure while avoiding new hidden debts [6] Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy is expected to utilize structural tools rather than interest rate cuts, with no anticipated rate decrease in Q3 [6] - The fiscal deficit usage rate for the first half of the year was 33.3%, indicating room for increased spending in the second half [6] - The emphasis on "people-oriented" fiscal measures reflects a shift towards consumption-driven growth, including subsidies for specific vulnerable groups [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The term "low-price" was removed from discussions on competition, indicating a shift in focus due to rising prices in many goods [7] - The need for coordinated supply and demand improvements to address price volatility was emphasized, with a focus on rational pricing [7] - The adjustment in capacity governance reflects a more complex landscape compared to previous reforms, requiring time for supply-demand balance improvements [7]