7月政治局会议：稳经济，练内功

Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting maintained a "seeking progress while maintaining stability" approach, with a more positive assessment of the economic situation compared to April[2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% and noted that major economic indicators performed well, with exports growing by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year[2] - The focus is shifting towards enhancing internal capabilities and promoting high-quality development in response to international trade uncertainties[2] Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on accelerating local government special bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency[4] - In the first half of the year, broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3%[4] - There may be room for increased fiscal spending in the second half of the year, particularly in Q3 to Q4[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose" with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity, but there was no mention of potential interest rate cuts[4] - As of Q1 this year, the net interest margin of commercial banks fell to 1.43%, limiting the scope for further rate cuts[4] - Structural monetary policy tools will likely be emphasized to support technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises[4] Consumption and Industry Upgrades - Policies to promote consumption will continue, with a focus on improving living standards and expanding service consumption[5] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy system is expected to positively impact total consumption, accounting for approximately 0.2% of the 2024 total resident consumption[5] - The government aims to support key industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles through capacity management and policy backing[5] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in US-China trade tensions and lower-than-expected domestic demand recovery[5]