中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，多晶硅、工业硅、硅铁等强势反弹-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - Domestic Macro: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset View: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - Stock Index Options: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - Coke: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - Glass: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - Alumina: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - Stainless Steel: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - LPG: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - Methanol: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - Urea: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - PX: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - PTA: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - Short - Fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - Bottle Chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - PP: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - Plastic: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - Styrene: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - Corn/Starch: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - Pigs: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Rubber: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - Pulp: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - Cotton: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - Sugar: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - Logs: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].