农产品日报（2025年7月30日）-20250730

Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a weak performance on Tuesday, with the September contract's funds shifting to the January contract. The favorable weather during the growing season influenced market sentiment, and the spot market in the Northeast region had limited trading activity. The downstream feed enterprises mainly used their previous inventory and waited for the new grain to enter the market. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous trading range of 2320 - 2330, facing technical resistance. If the support at 2300 is ineffective, the price will continue to decline. The view is that the price will be weakly volatile [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the US, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazilian grain exporters expected lower soybean and soybean meal exports in July. In the domestic market, soybean meal followed the external market and declined. The reduction of Argentine tariffs and overseas purchases by domestic feed enterprises dragged down the forward price of soybean meal. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will rise [1]. Edible Oils - BMD palm oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. Rapeseed in Canada also rose following the increase in US soybean oil. The market continued to focus on Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies. In the domestic market, soybean oil rose, rapeseed oil followed, and palm oil was relatively weak. The low price and high cost - effectiveness of soybean oil provided support. With the slight increase in the inventory of three major vegetable oils last week and the unclear international policies, the market will be volatile. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will be volatile [1]. Eggs - The main egg contract 2509 oscillated and closed flat on Tuesday. The spot price was stable. After the previous price adjustment, the short - term supply and demand became stable. Due to the hot weather, traders' willingness to stock up was low, and most of the egg prices in the sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamental situation was bearish, and the price will be volatile. Although the demand will increase in the peak season, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the price peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Pigs - The main pig contract 2509 rose 0.18% on Tuesday. The spot price of pigs declined in most regions. Some breeding enterprises increased their sales volume by reducing prices to meet their monthly sales plans. In the short term, the supply side will put pressure on the price, while policies will provide support. The view is that the price will be volatile [2]. Market Information - Last week, the production of rapeseed oil increased with the increase in rapeseed crushing volume, and the inventory continued to decline. As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported rapeseed oil was 78.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, a 3.21% decline. The contract volume was 11.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, a 9.24% decline [3]. - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with the EU agreeing to a zero - tariff policy for a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil imports, and a 3% tariff for imports exceeding the quota [3]. - The Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission (IPOC) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 500 million tons, higher than 480 million tons in 2024. Indonesia also plans to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India to support its plan to expand the oil palm planting area [4]. - The e - trading center of Sinograin will organize a two - way bidding trading of domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 40,302 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [1][6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and won awards [28].