尿素早评：反内卷政策预期将会反复-20250730

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The urea market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today due to the overnight rise in coking coal prices, which is likely to improve the sentiment of the coal chemical industry. However, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 750,000 tons, and domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may adjust repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 12 yuan/ton (0.68%), decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.12%) in Henan for domestic spot (small - granules), and UR05 increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.84%), UR09 increased by 6 yuan/ton (0.35%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - granules): Prices in Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.12%), 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%), and 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%) respectively, while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of anthracite coal, compound fertilizer (45%S), and melamine remained unchanged in most regions [1]. 2. Key Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 on the previous trading day was 1730 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1723 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1744 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the position was 152,980 lots [1]. 3. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 35 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1].