Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the long - awaited parenting subsidy policy has been officially implemented, which will increase residents' income and boost consumption, especially in low - income areas. It also breaks the household registration limit. Although more supporting policies are needed to enhance fertility willingness, this policy is a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade negotiation has achieved phased results, and the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate decision should be focused on [2]. - Overseas, the market generally expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The key points of the decision are the expected guidance on future interest rate cuts and the Fed's statements on subsequent price trends and economic data [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index continues to rebound. Without major event shocks, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.15 - 7.20 [3]. - For the stock index, the Sino - US negotiation results are out, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - For treasury bonds, wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - For container shipping, the opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. - For precious metals, focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - For zinc, the short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - For lithium carbonate, there are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - For iron ore, it is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - For coking coal and coke, the upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. - For crude oil, the geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - For LPG, the supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - For PX - PTA, the current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - For MEG - bottle chips, maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - For methanol, wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - For PVC, the trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - For pure benzene, wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - For styrene, the short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force is downward [43]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - For soda ash and glass, pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. - For logs, the market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - For pulp, the fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. - For live pigs, sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - For oilseeds, allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - For cotton, the upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - For sugar, the recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - For eggs, the medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - For apples, the price has a significant reverse effect [60]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made new progress. The suspended 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The US "reciprocal tariffs" face the risk of cancellation. The US JOLTS job openings in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [1][3]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: Wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - Container Shipping: The opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Stop falling and oscillate. Focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - Zinc: The short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: There are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: Beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - LPG: The supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - PX - PTA: The current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - Methanol: Wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - PP: The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - PE: The short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - PVC: The trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - Pure Benzene: Wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - Styrene: The short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term driving force is downward [43]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - Asphalt: The short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - Urea: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - Soda Ash & Glass: Pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. Others - Logs: The market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - Pulp: The fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - Caustic Soda: Pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - Oilseeds: Allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - Corn & Starch: They are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - Cotton: The upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - Sugar: The recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - Eggs: The medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - Apples: The price has a significant reverse effect [60].
金融期货早评-20250730
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-30 02:30