7月美联储议息会议传递的信号：相机抉择，静待关税

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its current policy stance, indicating a "wait-and-see" approach, with future decisions largely dependent on tariff impacts on inflation and employment risks[1] - The target federal funds rate remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting a more cautious economic outlook compared to June[2] - Two voting members opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first such dissent since 1993, which increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market is considered to be in a state of "full employment," but there are potential downward risks ahead[3] - The Fed views the impact of tariffs on inflation as a "one-time shock," with no unexpected easing signals provided during the meeting, leading to a slightly hawkish market interpretation[3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction remains at $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS, with no changes announced this month[2] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The potential for President Trump to dismiss Fed Chair Powell is viewed as a short-term disturbance with limited medium-term policy impact[4] - Market mechanisms are expected to constrain Trump's ability to influence Fed policy, as seen in past instances of proposed dismissals[4] - Even if Powell were to be replaced, the new chair may not align with Trump's monetary easing expectations, which could limit future rate cuts due to inflationary pressures[4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The report suggests a potential return of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, with the dollar index expected to rebound as trade policy uncertainties diminish[5] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to fluctuate between 4%-5% in 2025, with significant market movements potentially prompting Fed intervention[5] - Continued central bank gold purchases amid global geopolitical instability are expected to support long-term gold prices[5]