豆油商业库存偏高，油脂承压震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]