制裁俄罗斯对于特朗普是两难问题

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After Trump announced the shortening of the cease - fire observation period between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose, presenting a dilemma for Trump. Sanctioning Russia for a cease - fire would lead to rising oil prices and soaring inflation. The current oil fundamentals are strong but will turn into the off - season from August, not supporting higher oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.49% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump believes that North Sea oil is a treasure for the UK, and the high taxes are hard to understand. He thinks drilling companies should be quickly incentivized to exploit this wealth, which can bring huge wealth to the UK and significantly reduce people's energy costs [1] - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that Russia noted Trump's statement on shortening the deadline for a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Russia is still committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict and safeguarding its interests. Regarding Russia - US relations, Russia hopes to accelerate the normalization process, but the current situation does not allow for a strategic stability dialogue, and a Putin - Trump meeting is not on the agenda. Russia and the US have not contacted each other on extending the New START Treaty [1] - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. OPEC+ aims to ensure energy security and market balance, and its decisions are based on market developments. Kuwait supports efforts to stabilize the international oil market [1] Investment Logic - After Trump's announcement on the cease - fire observation period, rising oil prices pose a dilemma for him. Sanctioning Russia may lead to inflation, and the current fundamentals do not support high oil prices as the demand off - season is coming [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]