新能源及有色金属日报：反内卷影响仍在，近期参与需做好风险管控-20250730

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The anti - involution initiative has affected the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets. The industrial silicon market has a relatively good short - term supply - demand pattern, but there are still many复产 expectations in the southwest and northwest regions. The polysilicon market is greatly disturbed by the anti - involution news, and the official has no clear information yet [1][2][4][7]. - Participants in both markets need to do a good job in risk management. For industrial silicon, if the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be considered; for polysilicon, short - term range operation is recommended [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On July 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8915 yuan/ton and closed at 9350 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 276,734 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,082 lots, a decrease of 31 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The prices in some regions such as Xinjiang, Kunming, and Huangpu Port also continued to decline, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12800 yuan/ton. The supply of the organic silicon market shrank, and manufacturers' willingness to hold prices increased significantly [1]. - Strategy - Short - term cautious bullish. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be considered. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 49500 yuan/ton and closing at 50805 yuan/ton, up 3.76% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 140,638 lots (136,295 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 546,037 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30 (a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW (a month - on - month increase of 11.55%). The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons (a month - on - month increase of 10.87%), and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.90%) [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained relatively stable, with only slight changes in the prices of some battery cells [4][6]. - There were many news about anti - involution, storage, mergers, and acquisitions, but the official had no clear announcements, and the PV Industry Association refuted the rumors [6]. - Strategy - Short - term range operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [7].