宏观扰动仍存，氯碱震荡整理

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main factors affecting the market trends of PVC and caustic soda are "anti - involution" and the rectification of old devices. The market sentiment has improved, and the futures prices of both have risen. However, the fundamentals of both still face challenges, and the future trends need to pay attention to policy implementation [3] - For PVC, the supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and there is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] - For caustic soda, the supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Group 3: Summary of PVC - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,192 yuan/ton (+43). The East China basis was - 172 yuan/ton (- 83), and the South China basis was - 132 yuan/ton (- 43) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,020 yuan/ton (- 40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 62 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 134 yuan/ton (+181), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 506 yuan/ton (+89), and the PVC export profit was - 17.1 US dollars/ton (+11.1) [1] - Inventory and production: The in - factory PVC inventory was 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory was 42.7 tons (+1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 79.21% (+1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 75.81% (+0.84%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.5 tons (+9.9) [1] Market Analysis - The short - term PVC futures price is mainly driven by macro sentiment. The fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. There is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high - Inter - variety: No strategy Group 4: Summary of Caustic Soda - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,642 yuan/ton (+49), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 48 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 739.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 687.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,684.34 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Inventory and production: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.84 tons (+2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.00% (+1.40%) [2] - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate was 85.45% (+1.84%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 84.97% (+0.42%) [2] Market Analysis - The price trend of caustic soda futures is volatile. The supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads for the SH2509 - SH2601 spread - Inter - variety: No strategy