尿素日报：上游开工维持，基本面弱势-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The previous market was mainly affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution in the industry and elimination of backward production capacity, with a strong expectation. Currently, market sentiment has significantly declined. The upstream urea production remains stable in the short term, with high - level production and new devices gradually put into operation. Agricultural demand is coming to an end, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production is slow. There are no bright spots on the demand side. The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and urea enterprises need to prioritize domestic market supply. The market is limited by the total export quota, and the progress of the second - batch export quota is slow. Overall, the port inventory has changed little, and the fundamentals are weak [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,744 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,770 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,760 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was 1,790 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was 16 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan was 26 yuan/ton (-26), and in Jiangsu was 46 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of July 29, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,046 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of July 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58% (+1.03%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.20% (+0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (-0.12) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 tons (-3.67), and the inventory of port samples was 54.30 tons (+0.20) [1]