沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to the continued extension of the mutual suspension of additional tariffs between China and the US, the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper mines, combined with the traditional off - season suppressing downstream demand, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - On July 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,840 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 65,404 lots, a decrease of 10,226 lots; the open interest was 173,744 lots, down 2,348 lots; the inventory was 18,083 tons, up 251 tons [2][3]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) on July 29, 2025, was 9,803 US dollars, up 40.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total registered and cancelled warehouse stock was 0 tons, a decrease of 127,625 tons [3]. 3.2 Company and Project News - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially put into full production in the Zambia Mwaiseni Industrial Park. The first - phase investment is 11 million US dollars, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods [3]. - Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of Quebrada Blanca due to ore storage problems, and has suspended production at the mine for one month [3]. - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Heming Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [3]. 3.3 Upstream Production News - Teck Resources has lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Mermot's Red Chris copper mine in Canada has suspended operations due to an accident. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirl1 copper mine has started trial production, with an expected production of 4,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later. Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Macro - level News - The US Senate has passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other institutions to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing a slight increase in the US consumer - end CPE rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August has increased due to political pressure [4][5].